Oystershell scale (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) population growth, spread, and phenology on aspen in Arizona, USA.

Oystershell scale (OSS; Lepidosaphes ulmi L.) is an invasive insect that threatens sustainability of aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) in the southwestern United States. OSS invasions have created challenges for land managers tasked with maintaining healthy aspen ecosystems for the ecological, economic, and aesthetic benefits they provide. Active management is required to suppress OSS populations and mitigate damage to aspen ecosystems, but before management strategies can be implemented, critical knowledge gaps about OSS biology and ecology must be filled. This study sought to fill these gaps by addressing 3 questions: (i) What is the short-term rate of aspen mortality in OSS-infested stands in northern Arizona, USA? (ii) What are the short-term rates of OSS population growth on trees and OSS spread among trees in aspen stands? (iii) What is the phenology of OSS on aspen and does climate influence phenology? We observed high levels of aspen mortality (annual mortality rate = 10.4%) and found that OSS spread rapidly within stands (annual spread rate = 10-12.3%). We found first, second, and young third instars throughout the year and observed 2 waves of first instars (i.e., crawlers), one throughout the summer and a second in mid-winter. The first wave appeared to be driven by warming seasonal temperatures, but the cause of the second wave is unknown and might represent a second generation. We provide recommendations for future OSS research, including suggestions for more precise quantification of OSS phenology, and discuss how our results can inform management of OSS and invaded aspen ecosystems.

Western Spruce Budworm Effects on Forest Resilience.

Western spruce budworm (Choristoneura freemani Razowski) is the most destructive defoliator of forests in the western US. Forests in northern New Mexico experienced high levels of WSBW-caused defoliation and subsequent mortality between the 1980s and 2010s. The effects of severe western spruce budworm outbreaks on stand dynamics in the US Southwest are still relatively unknown, but understanding the impacts is important to the management and resilience of these forests. To begin addressing this knowledge gap, we conducted a study along two gradients: an elevational gradient from mixed-conifer to spruce-fir forests and a gradient of WSBW-caused defoliation intensity. We recorded overstory and understory stand conditions (size structure, species composition, damaging agents). Western spruce budworm was the primary damaging agent of host trees in all stands andcaused host tree mortality across all size classes, particularly in spruce-fir stands. Results indicate an unsustainable level of mortality in spruce-fir stands and a transition towards non-host species in mixed-conifer stands. Low levels of regeneration coupled with high overstory mortality rates indicate a potential lack of resilience in spruce-fir stands, whereas resilience to future western spruce budworm defoliation events may have increased in mixed-conifer stands affected by these outbreaks.

Comparative Association Mapping Reveals Conservation of Major Gene Resistance to White Pine Blister Rust in Southwestern White Pine (Pinus strobiformis) and Limber Pine (P. flexilis).

All native North American white pines are highly susceptible to white pine blister rust (WPBR) caused by Cronartium ribicola. Understanding genomic diversity and molecular mechanisms underlying genetic resistance to WPBR remains one of the great challenges in improvement of white pines. To compare major gene resistance (MGR) present in two species, southwestern white pine (Pinus strobiformis) Cr3 and limber pine (P. flexilis) Cr4, we performed association analyses of Cr3-controlled resistant traits using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) assays designed with Cr4-linked polymorphic genes. We found that ∼70% of P. flexilis SNPs were transferable to P. strobiformis. Furthermore, several Cr4-linked SNPs were significantly associated with the Cr3-controlled traits in P. strobiformis families. The most significantly associated SNP (M326511_1126R) almost colocalized with Cr4 on the Pinus consensus linkage group 8, suggesting that Cr3 and Cr4 might be the same R locus, or have localizations very close to each other in the syntenic region of the P. strobiformis and P. flexilis genomes. M326511_1126R was identified as a nonsynonymous SNP, causing amino acid change (Val376Ile) in a putative pectin acetylesterase, with coding sequences identical between the two species. Moreover, top Cr3-associated SNPs were further developed as TaqMan genotyping assays, suggesting their usefulness as marker-assisted selection (MAS) tools to distinguish genotypes between quantitative resistance and MGR. This work demonstrates the successful transferability of SNP markers between two closely related white pine species in the hybrid zone, and the possibility for deployment of MAS tools to facilitate long-term WPBR management in P. strobiformis breeding and conservation.

Assessment and Models of Insect Damage to Cones and Seeds of Pinus strobiformis in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico.

Insect damage to cones and seeds has a strong impact on the regeneration of conifer forest ecosystems, with broader implications for ecological and economic services. Lack of control of insect populations can lead to important economic and environmental losses. Pinus strobiformis is the most widespread of the white pines in Mexico and is widely distributed throughout the mountains of northern Mexico. Relatively few studies have examined insect damage to the cones and seeds of these pines, especially in Mexico. In this study, we therefore analyzed insect damage to cones and seeds of P. strobiformis in Mexico by using X-ray and stereomicroscopic analysis. The specific objectives of the study were (a) to characterize insect damage by measuring external and internal cone traits, (b) to assess the health of seeds and cones of P. strobiformis in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Mexico, and (c) to estimate the relative importance of the effects of different environmental variables on cone and seed damage caused by insects. We found that 80% of P. strobiformis seeds and 100% of the tree populations studied had damage caused by insects. Most seeds were affected by Leptoglossus occidentalis, Tetyra bipunctata, Megastigmus albifrons, and the Lepidoptera complex (which includes Apolychrosis synchysis, Cydia latisigna, Eucosma bobana, and Dioryctria abietivorella). The cones of all tree populations were affected by some type of insect damage, with Lepidoptera causing most of the damage (72%), followed by Conophthorus ponderosae (15%), the hemipteran L. occidentalis (7%), and the wasp M. albifrons (6%). The proportion of incomplete seeds in P. strobiformis at the tree level, cone damage by M. albifrons and seed damage in L. occidentalis were associated with various climate and soil variables and with crown dieback. Thus, cone and seed insect damage can be severe and potentially impact seed production in P. strobiformis and the reforestation potential of the species. The study findings will enable managers to better identify insects that cause damage to cone and seeds. In addition, identification of factors associated with damage may be useful for predicting the levels of insect predation on seeds and cones.

Adaptive evolution in a conifer hybrid zone is driven by a mosaic of recently introgressed and background genetic variants.

Extant conifer species may be susceptible to rapid environmental change owing to their long generation times, but could also be resilient due to high levels of standing genetic diversity. Hybridisation between closely related species can increase genetic diversity and generate novel allelic combinations capable of fuelling adaptive evolution. Our study unravelled the genetic architecture of adaptive evolution in a conifer hybrid zone formed between Pinus strobiformis and P. flexilis. Using a multifaceted approach emphasising the spatial and environmental patterns of linkage disequilibrium and ancestry enrichment, we identified recently introgressed and background genetic variants to be driving adaptive evolution along different environmental gradients. Specifically, recently introgressed variants from P. flexilis were favoured along freeze-related environmental gradients, while background variants were favoured along water availability-related gradients. We posit that such mosaics of allelic variants within conifer hybrid zones will confer upon them greater resilience to ongoing and future environmental change and can be a key resource for conservation efforts.

Morphological Differences in Pinus strobiformis Across Latitudinal and Elevational Gradients.

The phenotype of trees is determined by the relationships and interactions among genetic and environmental influences. Understanding the patterns and processes that are responsible for phenotypic variation is facilitated by studying the relationships between phenotype and the environment among many individuals across broad ecological and climatic gradients. We used Pinus strobiformis, which has a wide latitudinal distribution, as a model species to: (a) estimate the relative importance of different environmental factors in predicting these morphological traits and (b) characterize the spatial patterns of standing phenotypic variation of cone and seed traits across the species' range. A large portion of the total variation in morphological characteristics was explained by ecological, climatic and geographical variables (54.7% collectively). The three climate, vegetation and geographical variable groups, each had similar total ability to explain morphological variation (43.4%, 43.8%, 51.5%, respectively), while the topographical variable group had somewhat lower total explanatory power (36.9%). The largest component of explained variance (33.6%) was the four-way interaction of all variable sets, suggesting that there is strong covariation in environmental, climate and geographical variables in their relationship to morphological traits of southwest white pine across its range. The regression results showed that populations in more humid and warmer climates expressed greater cone length and seed size. This may in part facilitate populations of P. strobiformis in warmer and wetter portions of its range growing in dense, shady forest stands, because larger seeds provide greater resources to germinants at the time of germination. Our models provide accurate predictions of morphological traits and important insights regarding the factors that contribute to their expression. Our results indicate that managers should be conservative during reforestation efforts to ensure match between ecotypic variation in seed source populations. However, we also note that given projected large range shift due to climate change, managers will have to balance the match between current ecotypic variation and expected range shift and changes in local adaptive optima under future climate conditions.

Tracing the footprints of a moving hybrid zone under a demographic history of speciation with gene flow.

A lack of optimal gene combinations, as well as low levels of genetic diversity, is often associated with the formation of species range margins. Conservation efforts rely on predictive modelling using abiotic variables and assessments of genetic diversity to determine target species and populations for controlled breeding, germplasm conservation and assisted migration. Biotic factors such as interspecific competition and hybridization, however, are largely ignored, despite their prevalence across diverse taxa and their role as key evolutionary forces. Hybridization between species with well-developed barriers to reproductive isolation often results in the production of offspring with lower fitness. Generation of novel allelic combinations through hybridization, however, can also generate positive fitness consequences. Despite this possibility, hybridization-mediated introgression is often considered a threat to biodiversity as it can blur species boundaries. The contribution of hybridization towards increasing genetic diversity of populations at range margins has only recently gathered attention in conservation studies. We assessed the extent to which hybridization contributes towards range dynamics by tracking spatio-temporal changes in the central location of a hybrid zone between two recently diverged species of pines: Pinus strobiformis and P. flexilis. By comparing geographic cline centre estimates for global admixture coefficient with morphological traits associated with reproductive output, we demonstrate a northward shift in the hybrid zone. Using a combination of spatially explicit, individual-based simulations and linkage disequilibrium variance partitioning, we note a significant contribution of adaptive introgression towards this northward movement, despite the potential for differences in regional population size to aid hybrid zone movement. Overall, our study demonstrates that hybridization between recently diverged species can increase genetic diversity and generate novel allelic combinations. These novel combinations may allow range margin populations to track favourable climatic conditions or facilitate adaptive evolution to ongoing and future climate change.

The role of hybridization during ecological divergence of southwestern white pine (Pinus strobiformis) and limber pine (P. flexilis).

Interactions between extrinsic factors, such as disruptive selection and intrinsic factors, such as genetic incompatibilities among loci, often contribute to the maintenance of species boundaries. The relative roles of these factors in the establishment of reproductive isolation can be examined using species pairs characterized by gene flow throughout their divergence history. We investigated the process of speciation and the maintenance of species boundaries between Pinus strobiformis and Pinus flexilis. Utilizing ecological niche modelling, demographic modelling and genomic cline analyses, we illustrated a divergence history with continuous gene flow. Our results supported an abundance of advanced generation hybrids and a lack of loci exhibiting steep transition in allele frequency across the hybrid zone. Additionally, we found evidence for climate-associated variation in the hybrid index and niche divergence between parental species and the hybrid zone. These results are consistent with extrinsic factors, such as climate, being an important isolating mechanism. A build-up of intrinsic incompatibilities and of coadapted gene complexes is also apparent, although these appear to be in the earliest stages of development. This supports previous work in coniferous species demonstrating the importance of extrinsic factors in facilitating speciation. Overall, our findings lend support to the hypothesis that varying strength and direction of selection pressures across the long lifespans of conifers, in combination with their other life history traits, delays the evolution of strong intrinsic incompatibilities.

Genetic variation in Pinus strobiformis growth and drought tolerance from southwestern US populations.

The persistence of some tree species is threatened by combinations of novel abiotic and biotic stressors. To examine the hypothesis that Pinus strobiformis Engelm., a tree threatened by an invasive forest pathogen and a changing climate, exhibits intraspecific genetic variation in adaptive traits, we conducted a common garden study of seedlings at one location with two watering regimes using 24 populations. Four key findings emerged: (i) growth and physiological traits were low to moderately differentiated among populations but differentiation was high for some traits in water-stressed populations; (ii) seedlings from warmer climates grew larger, had higher stomatal density and were more water-use efficient (as measured by the carbon isotope ratio) than populations from colder climates; (iii) seedlings from the northern edge of the species' distribution had lower water-use efficiency, higher stomatal conductance, slower growth and longer survival in a lethal drought experiment compared with seedlings from more southern populations; and (iv) based on non-metric multidimensional scaling analyses, populations clustered into southern and northern groups, which did not correspond to current seed transfer zones. Our discovery of a clinal geographic pattern of genetic variation in adaptive traits of P. strobiformis seedlings will be useful in developing strategies to maintain the species during ongoing climate change and in the face of an invasive pathogen.

The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States.

We synthesize insights from current understanding of drought impacts at stand-to-biogeographic scales, including management options, and we identify challenges to be addressed with new research. Large stand-level shifts underway in western forests already are showing the importance of interactions involving drought, insects, and fire. Diebacks, changes in composition and structure, and shifting range limits are widely observed. In the eastern US, the effects of increasing drought are becoming better understood at the level of individual trees, but this knowledge cannot yet be confidently translated to predictions of changing structure and diversity of forest stands. While eastern forests have not experienced the types of changes seen in western forests in recent decades, they too are vulnerable to drought and could experience significant changes with increased severity, frequency, or duration in drought. Throughout the continental United States, the combination of projected large climate-induced shifts in suitable habitat from modeling studies and limited potential for the rapid migration of tree populations suggests that changing tree and forest biogeography could substantially lag habitat shifts already underway. Forest management practices can partially ameliorate drought impacts through reductions in stand density, selection of drought-tolerant species and genotypes, artificial regeneration, and the development of multistructured stands. However, silvicultural treatments also could exacerbate drought impacts unless implemented with careful attention to site and stand characteristics. Gaps in our understanding should motivate new research on the effects of interactions involving climate and other species at the stand scale and how interactions and multiple responses are represented in models. This assessment indicates that, without a stronger empirical basis for drought impacts at the stand scale, more complex models may provide limited guidance.

Modeling the impacts of two bark beetle species under a warming climate in the southwestern USA: Ecological and economic consequences.

Predicted climate warming is expected to have profound effects on bark beetle population dynamics in the southwestern United States. Temperature-mediated effects may include increases in developmental rates, generations per year, and changes in habitat suitability. As a result, the impacts of Dendroctonus frontalis and Dendroctonus mexicanus on forest resources are likely subject to amplification. To assess the implications of such change, we evaluated the generations per year of these species under three climate scenarios using a degree-day development model. We also assessed economic impacts of increased beetle outbreaks in terms of the costs of application of preventative silvicultural treatments and potential economic revenues forgone. Across the southwestern USA, the potential number of beetle generations per year ranged from 1-3+ under historical climate, an increase of 2-4+ under the minimal warming scenario and 3-5+ under the greatest warming scenario. Economic benefits of applying basal area reduction treatments to reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreaks ranged from $7.75/ha (NM) to $95.69/ha (AZ) under historical conditions, and $47.96/ha (NM) to $174.58/ha (AZ) under simulated severe drought conditions. Basal area reduction treatments that reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreak result in higher net present values than no action scenarios. Coupled with other deleterious consequences associated with beetle outbreaks, such as increased wildfires, the results suggest that forest thinning treatments play a useful role in a period of climate warming.